Track Record
Every rated call, as it was published. When a call is revised, the old one stays here and is marked revised. Calls that went wrong or that I missed stay here too.
How calls are scored
- Target hit. A BUY or Accumulate call with a price target is scored Target hit on the first exchange close at or above the target within its horizon, and the outcome locks on that date. For a target range, the midpoint counts. Target hit counts as right.
- BUY / Accumulate calls whose target is not hit are scored at the end of the horizon: right if they beat the benchmark, wrong if they lag. The benchmark is BTC for crypto and the S&P 500 for equities and for BTC itself.
- SELL is right if it lags the benchmark, wrong if it beats it.
- HOLD is right if it ends within ±10% of the benchmark.
- NEUTRAL is not scored. No position was taken.
- Each call is scored over its own horizon from its own date, including calls later revised. Until the horizon ends the outcome is Open.
11 rated calls. Target hit: 4. Open: 6. Missed: 1 (MU, a HOLD).
| Date | Report | Rating | At call | Target | Mark | Since | Benchmark | vs bench | Status | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 · 2026 | PURRUpdate · 0.95x adjusted NAV, share count doubled | BUY | $9.74 | $12.79 | 9.87 | +1% | — | — | Active | Open |
| 10 · 2026 | HYPEUpdate · revenue behind the May path, Kraken HIP-3 leg, re-rated to HOLD | HOLD | $80.21 | $93.36 | 81.15 | +1% | — | — | Active | Open |
| 10 · 2026 | NEARInitiation · agent payments valued as a five-state option | BUY | $4.52 | $11.59 | 4.63 | +2% | — | — | Active | Open |
| 10 · 2026 | CIInitiation · 2028 PBM reform priced as a permanent margin cut | BUY | $304.57 | $504.38 | 299.10 | −2% | — | — | Active | Open |
| 07 · 2026 | BTCOriginal · washed-out base, 7:1 R/R | Accumulate | $59,600 | $126k | 80,540 | +35% | SPX +3% | +32 pts | Active | OpenCalled at $59,600, 1.8% above the cycle-low close of $58,559 on 06·30. Prior-high target not reached. |
| 05 · 2026 | PURROriginal · DAT vehicle, mNAV / ELOC mechanics | BUY | $8.25 | $13–17 | 9.87 | +20% | BTC +4% | +16 pts | Revised | OpenLow end $13 closed 09·18 ($14.09 high close). Midpoint $15 not reached. |
| 05 · 2026 | HYPEUpdate · ETFs live, HIP-3/4, DCF | BUY | $48.12 | $85–105 FDV | 81.15 | +69% | BTC +5% | +64 pts | Revised | Target hitMidpoint $95 closed 09·22·26 at $97.27. Top of range $105 not reached. |
| 04 · 2026 | HYPEUpdate · post S&P 500 license | BUY | $37.00 | $60–80 | 81.15 | +119% | BTC +13% | +106 pts | Revised | Target hitMidpoint $70 closed 05·31·26. Top of range $80 on 08·23. |
| 04 · 2026 | MUInitiation · semi memory cycle | HOLD | $371 | $395 | 931.83 | +151% | SPX +18% | — | Closed | MissedShould have been a BUY. The model was too conservative on the memory cycle. |
| 02 · 2026 | HYPEOriginal · HIP-3 / HIP-4 TAM thesis | BUY | $30.08 | $47–58 | 81.15 | +170% | BTC +19% | +151 pts | Revised | Target hitMidpoint $52.50 closed 05·20·26, 88 days after the call. Top of range $58 on 05·21. |
| 02 · 2026 | CRCLInitiation · relevered peer beta, issuer economics | BUY | $62.50 | $87.35 | 80.58 | +29% | SPX +12% | +17 pts | Active | Target hit$87.35 closed 03·02·26, within two weeks. Peak $132.84 on 03·18. Trimmed at $93.43 on 09·03. |
Marks as of 27 Oct 2026. Supplied by the research project: equities at the exchange close; BTC, HYPE and NEAR at the Hyperliquid mid. “Since” is the change in price from the call. “vs bench” is that change minus the benchmark’s over the same window, in percentage points; benchmark figures supplied by the research project. Unrated macro reports are tracked through their theses below.
Log
Ratings, rating changes, closed theses and trades in covered names, newest first. Entries are not edited or removed after they are posted.
| Date | Asset | Action | Price | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10·27·26 | PURR | Updated | $9.74 | BUY $13–17 → BUY $12.79 weighted |
| 10·27·26 | HYPE | Re-rated | $80.21 | BUY $85–105 FDV → HOLD $93.36 weighted |
| 10·26·26 | NEAR | Initiated | $4.52 | BUY · $11.59 |
| 10·26·26 | CI | Initiated | $304.57 | BUY · $504.38 |
| 10·26·26 | M-02 | Thesis closed | — | Falsified: Real rates compression resumes by mid-2027; precious metals lead, BTC follows with a lag. |
| 09·22·26 | HYPE | Target hit | $97.27 | May BUY midpoint ($95). Posted 10·28. |
| 09·22·26 | BTC | Updated | $86,000 | Accumulate, unchanged; positioning to Hold + laddered |
| 09·03·26 | CRCL | Trimmed | $93.43 | Above the $87.35 target. Still long. |
| 07·2026 | BTC | Entered | $59,600 | Core position, entered at the Sold Out call. Nothing sold since. |
| 07·2026 | BTC | Initiated | $59,600 | Accumulate · $126k |
| 05·31·26 | HYPE | Target hit | $70 | April BUY midpoint. Posted 10·28. |
| 05·20·26 | HYPE | Target hit | $52.50 | February BUY midpoint. Posted 10·28. |
| 05·20·26 | PURR | Initiated | $8.25 | BUY · $13–17 |
| 05·19·26 | HYPE | Updated | $48.12 | BUY $60–80 → BUY $85–105 FDV |
| 04·09·26 | HYPE | Updated | $37.00 | BUY $47–58 → BUY $60–80 |
| 04·02·26 | MU | Initiated | $371 | HOLD · $395 |
| 03·02·26 | CRCL | Target hit | $87.35 | February BUY target. Posted 10·28. |
| 02·21·26 | HYPE | Initiated | $30.08 | BUY · $47–58 |
| 02·2026 | CRCL | Initiated | $62.50 | BUY · $87.35 |
Theses
| Date | ID | Thesis | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 · 27 · 2026 | C-02 | Hyperliquid has been a core position. It's now approaching fair value. | active |
| 10 · 27 · 2026 | M-01 | Two of the June triggers have printed. I'm hedging a pullback and staying long. | active |
| 10 · 26 · 2026 | E-01 | Cigna is priced for the bear case. | active |
| 10 · 26 · 2026 | C-03 | The price is a bet that AI agents settle payments on NEAR. | active |
| 09 · 22 · 2026 | C-01 | The base held. BTC rallied through a Fed hike. | active |
| 01 · 11 · 2026 | M-02 | Real rates compression resumes by mid-2027; precious metals lead, BTC follows with a lag. | falsified |