Equity and token research, written from an active book.

Cigna is priced for the bear case.

I rate Cigna a BUY. At $304.57, it trades at about 10x the floor on 2026 adjusted EPS. The price assumes the 2028 pharmacy-benefit rules cut Express Scripts' profit by about a third and keep it there. My base case holds the adjusted EBIT margin at 3.8% through the move to rebate-free contracts, and the 2026 reset is already in the numbers. Four weighted scenarios give $504.38 a share, a 39.6% margin of safety. The bear case is $290.72, within 5% of the price.

Free cash flow after stock comp runs $8–9B a year against an $81B market cap, and it buys back stock at 10x earnings. The discount rate is the weakest input. If WACC is above about 8%, the margin of safety drops below my 30% gate. Q3 on November 5 is the first test.

See: The Cigna Group (CI) · BUY, $504.38

Hyperliquid has been a core position. It's now approaching fair value.

HIP-3 has put $4.1bn of open interest in single stocks, commodities and indices on the chain in about a year. Kraken's parent Payward plans to become the first CFTC-regulated HIP-3 deployer, which would let US customers trade there. Fee revenue hasn't followed yet. Holder revenue is on track for about $685m this year, 16% below 2025, and the token trades at 83 times run-rate revenue. My base case has revenue growing about 50% next year and slowing to 4% by 2036. That case is worth $61 a token today, with a 12-month weighted value of $93, so I rate it HOLD and stay long.

See: Hyperliquid (HYPE) · HOLD, $93.36 · BUY below $78.44

The price is a bet that AI agents settle payments on NEAR.

I rate NEAR a BUY, and AI-agent payment rails are most of the reason. On the cash it returns to holders today, NEAR is worth $0.41 a token. On L1 peer fee multiples it is worth $1.33–$1.95. Everything above that is the chance NEAR becomes the settlement rail for software agents paying on behalf of people and firms. Of the L1s, I think NEAR is the one most likely to get there. It has the most complete agent stack live today: Intents settles across about 35 chains and leads every cross-chain venue by fees ($53.7M over twelve months), chain signatures let a NEAR account sign on other chains, and NEAR AI hosts agents.

Across five adoption states, fair value is $10.79 against $4.52, and the 12-month target is $11.59. The market prices a 28% chance of base adoption; I put 35% on base or better. The payoff is skewed. The median outcome is $3.38, below spot, so the position is a starter at spot with most of the buying at $2.58–$3.16.

See: NEAR Protocol (NEAR) · BUY, $11.59

The base held. BTC rallied through a Fed hike.

10 · 27 · 2026BTC is $80,540, in the $80–82k zone where I said new size goes on and about $500 above the band that would mark September's breakout as mechanical. Update before the December 1 MSCI decision.

Bitcoin is near $86,000, up 44% from the $59,600 call and 32% below the October high. Both confirmations printed: the ETF bid rebuilt and SOPR reclaimed 1.0. The Fed hiked on September 16 and BTC cleared its 50-week moving average anyway, the first time in 45 weeks.

The breakout ran on $593M of ETF inflows over two sessions and a $278M short squeeze. The full week netted $6M. RSI is 73 and sentiment is greed. Reward-to-risk to the prior high is now about 1 to 1 against $50,000. Core is held from the low $60,000s, no profit taken. New size waits for $80–82k and below. Risks: a long-leverage flush, a second hike in December, and the MSCI forced sale of Strategy on December 1.

See: Sold Out: BTC Positioning & Cycle Structure

Two of the June triggers have printed. I'm hedging a pullback and staying long.

Dealers are short gamma below a 7,723 flip, Brent is $115, and the S&P's cyclically adjusted earnings yield is now below the 10-year TIPS yield. Two of the four triggers from June have printed and high yield is 12bp from the third, so I've put on SPX put spreads down to the 7,000 put wall, sized for the base-case pullback. They come off on two closes above the flip with VIX/VIX3M under 0.90 and high yield under 3.25%. I rerun the full trigger set after the November 3 midterms and November 5 prints. The core stays long. My base case is a 5–12% pullback, then new highs in 2027.

The cycle top is a separate call. It needs sentiment to catch up with positioning, and my euphoria composite is at 43 against 75. I think it comes between late 2028 and 2030. The data gives that window 50% and an earlier break 35%.

See: Equities on Stilts