Research · Coverage
HOLDCurrent · Oct 2026
Hyperliquid (HYPE): October Update
Update with model · revenue behind the May path, Kraken HIP-3 leg · HOLD, $93.36 12-mo weighted
- Rating
- HOLD
- 12-mo weighted
- $93.36
- Price at publication
- $80.21
- Base
- $68.26
- Bear
- $21.52
- Bull
- $133.63
- BUY below
- $78.44
- Published
- 27 Oct 2026
- Length
- 8 pp.
Author holds a position.
I'm moving HYPE to HOLD. The May BUY at $48 worked on price, but revenue is tracking about $685m this year against a $2.36bn forecast. My base case of 50% growth slowing to 4% is worth $61 today. The weighted value of $93 sits above spot only because of the bull cases. Kraken's regulated HIP-3 plan is a real positive.
- Holder revenue is on track for about $685m in 2026, 16% below 2025, while HYPE is up 67% since May. FDV is 83x run-rate holder revenue.
- HIP-3 holds $4.1bn of open interest in stocks, commodities and indices, 97% at Trade.xyz. Payward (Kraken) plans the first CFTC-regulated HIP-3 deployment.
- Base case $68 in 12 months, weighted $93. The rating moves to BUY below $78.44. Base path: core revenue of $218m in Q1 2027, rising to $298m by Q4 2027.
Theses on this
10 · 27 · 2026 · C-02 · activeHyperliquid has been a core position. It's now approaching fair value.Versions
27 Oct 2026CurrentUpdate · revenue behind the May path, Kraken HIP-3 leg, re-rated to HOLDHOLD · $93.36 · at $80.21 · BUY $85–105 FDV → HOLD $93.36 weighted: HYPE reached the May range while FY2026 revenue tracked about 30% of the May forecastPDF →19 May 2026SupersededUpdate · ETFs live, HIP-3/4, DCFBUY · $85–105 FDV · at $48.12 · BUY $60–80 → BUY $85–105 FDV: ETFs live, HIP-3/4, DCFPDF →9 Apr 2026SupersededUpdate · post S&P 500 licenseBUY · $60–80 · at $37.00 · BUY $47–58 → BUY $60–80: Post S&P 500 licensePDF →21 Feb 2026SupersededOriginal · HIP-3 / HIP-4 TAM thesisBUY · $47–58 · at $30.08PDF →