Vistra Corp. (VST): Contracted Cash Flow at a Merchant Price

Initiation · contracted cash flow at a merchant price · BUY, $152.17 12-mo weighted

Rating

BUY

12-mo weighted

$152.17

Price at publication

$137.07

Base

$150.70

Bear

$120.08

Bull

$180.73

BUY below

$142.86

Published

30 Oct 2026

Length

9 pp.

Author holds a position.

Vistra trades at a 10% free-cash-flow yield, priced like a merchant power producer. Over the next 18 months, Cogentrix and the Meta and Comanche Peak nuclear contracts add contracted cash flow. At the same yield, free cash flow per share grows about 10%. My 12-month target is $152.

• At $137.07, VST trades at 10.0x next-year free cash flow before growth and 8.9x 2027 EBITDA including Cogentrix. 2027 is 94% hedged.
• Free cash flow per share rises from $13.68 to $15.04 by October 2027 with no change in the multiple. Expected alpha is +9.5pp against a 2.1% required return.
• The call is invalidated if 2027 guidance comes in below $7.4bn on November 6, or if Vistra becomes a full cash taxpayer by 2028.